<![CDATA[Finance Charts Daily]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M72X!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0ad0f09-cd80-404b-8724-b0344411522f_1148x1148.pngFinance Charts Dailyhttps://www.financechartsdaily.comSubstackMon, 12 Oct 2026 16:41:24 GMT<![CDATA[US Stock Market Is Now Worth A Record 238.6% Of GDP]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/us-stock-market-is-now-worth-a-recordhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/us-stock-market-is-now-worth-a-recordThu, 08 Oct 2026 22:31:08 GMT

  • Buffett record: The US stock market is now worth a record 238.6% of GDP.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Loan stress: CCC leveraged loans are down about 1% this year, while BB and B loans are up about 3.6%.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Gold buying: Central banks added a net 39 tonnes of gold in August.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. AI premium: AI winner stocks are pulling far ahead of the rest of the market again.

    Global_Macro

    1. Thin payouts: The S&P 500 dividend yield has dropped to about 1.07%, below its dot com low.

    Global_Macro

    1. AI switching: A record 8% of companies changed their main AI model provider in September.

    Daily Chartbook

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[US Office CMBS Delinquencies Hit 12.2%, Above The Financial Crisis Peak]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/us-office-cmbs-delinquencies-hithttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/us-office-cmbs-delinquencies-hitWed, 07 Oct 2026 22:30:37 GMT

  • Office distress: US office CMBS delinquencies hit 12.2%, above the financial crisis peak.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Data center boom: US data center construction spending hit a record $85 billion annual pace.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Yield shock: The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.31%, its highest since 2002.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. AI borrowing: Hyperscaler investment grade bond issuance is up about 10x from 2024.

    Illiquid Insight

    1. Russian gold: Hong Kong’s Russian gold imports hit nearly $15bn in 2026 through July.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. AI split: S&P 500 held near highs while the index excluding AI stocks slid from its August peak.

    Daily Chartbook

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Nasdaq 100 To Russell 2000 Ratio Hits Record Above Dot-Com Peak]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/nasdaq-100-to-russell-2000-ratiohttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/nasdaq-100-to-russell-2000-ratioTue, 06 Oct 2026 22:30:53 GMT

  • Tech dominance: The Nasdaq 100 to Russell 2000 ratio just hit a record, above the dot-com peak.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Bond contagion: France's selloff lifts euro-area spreads — Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Futures exodus: Big investors have cut S&P 500 futures positions by about $68 billion in six weeks.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. China liquidity: China's M2 money supply hit a record after a $440 billion jump in August.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Luxury slump: LVMH is in its deepest drawdown in 25 years, worse than 2009.

    Fiscal.ai

    1. Nvidia nation: Nvidia now outweighs all of Japan in the global ACWI index.

    Augur Infinity

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[G10 Excess Liquidity Falls To Lowest Level Since Early 2024]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/g10-excess-liquidity-falls-to-lowesthttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/g10-excess-liquidity-falls-to-lowestMon, 05 Oct 2026 22:31:46 GMT

  • Liquidity drop: G10 excess liquidity has fallen to its lowest level since early 2024.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Concentration bubble: Only about 23% of the largest 500 US stocks beat the S&P over 10 years.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Gold resilience: Gold ETF holdings kept climbing while the metal price fell.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Foreign stocks: ACWX saw its biggest monthly inflow ever as money rotated outside the US.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Bond buying: Retail investors made their largest purchase on record of the long Treasury ETF TLT.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Inflation mix: Nearly half of CPI components are still running above 3% year over year.

    Deer Point Macro

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Mortgage Rates Spike To 7.28%, Highest Since Late 2023]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/mortgage-rates-spike-to-728-highesthttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/mortgage-rates-spike-to-728-highestSun, 04 Oct 2026 22:30:05 GMT

  • Mortgage spike: The 30-year fixed jumped 25 bps to 7.28%, its highest since late 2023.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Rate sensitivity: Interest rate-sensitive sectors are the most oversold in five years.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. Midterm October: S&P October returns in midterm years beat the all-year average.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Tech breakout: XLK hit a new high after 3+ months, a setup that has been bullish for Q4.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Short interest: Russell 2000 short interest rose to the 99.8th percentile.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. Sector tape: Daily S&P moves, sized by market weight.

    Global Markets Observer

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[France-Germany 10-Year Yield Spread Widens To 152 Basis Points]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/france-germany-10-year-yield-spreadhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/france-germany-10-year-yield-spreadSat, 03 Oct 2026 22:30:49 GMT

  • French spreads: The France-Germany 10-year gap hit 152 bps, widest since the euro debt crisis.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Jobs miss: September payrolls rose just 29,000, the 3rd-lowest reading of 2026.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Treasury Index YoY: Bloomberg US Treasury Index YoY is below its trending mean and within the historical mean ± SD bands.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Credit warning: Spreads hit 100-day highs and crossed above their 50-day average.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. Stock allocation: AAII equity exposure rose to 71.8%, the highest since December 2017.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Equity risk premium: The US has the lowest ERP among major developed economies.

    Augur Infinity

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Equal-weight S&P Is On Track For A 7th Straight Weekly Decline]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/equal-weight-s-and-p-is-on-trackhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/equal-weight-s-and-p-is-on-trackFri, 02 Oct 2026 22:30:05 GMT

  • Breadth collapse: Equal-weight S&P is on track for a 7th straight weekly decline.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Japan yields: The 10-year JGB yield jumped to 3.12%, its highest since 1999.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Treasury bear: The long-bond ETF is down about 55% from its 2020 peak.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. October bounce: Less than 42% of S&P 500 stocks sit above their 200-day average.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Money velocity: Updated M2 velocity after the BEA revised Q2 GDP higher.

    One Chance Freedom

    1. Treasury shorts: Asset managers added over 100,000 10-year futures short positions.

    Global Markets Observer

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[The Conference Board Index Fell To Its Lowest Level Since April 2014]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-conference-board-index-fell-tohttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-conference-board-index-fell-toThu, 01 Oct 2026 22:30:51 GMT

  • Consumer confidence: The Conference Board index fell to its lowest level since April 2014.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Market divergence: The S&P sits near a high while equal weight is 5%+ below its peak.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Bond quarter: The US 30-year yield is back at 5.47%, levels last seen in the early 2000s.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Credit stress: High-yield spreads widened to 294bp, the highest since April.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Q4 setup: Mild Q3 gains have been followed by a positive Q4 in 17 of 18 cases.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Risk appetite: The equity put/call ratio fell to 0.38, its lowest reading since 2023.

    Bluekurtic

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[The Russell 2000 Just Set A New Record With 16 Straight Weak Closes]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-russell-2000-just-set-a-new-recordhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-russell-2000-just-set-a-new-recordWed, 30 Sep 2026 22:30:34 GMT

  • Small caps: The Russell 2000 just set a new record with 16 straight weak closes.

    • Bluekurtic

    1. Pension rebalancing: US funds are modeled to sell $33 billion of equities into quarter-end.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Breadth divergence: The NYSE McClellan Summation Index hit a 2-year low while the S&P sits near highs.

    Bluekurtic

    1. AI buildout: Projected AI infrastructure spend could average 3.6% of US GDP a year through 2032.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Tech valuations: Today's IT bear market multiples look milder than prior boom busts.

    Steve Donze

    1. Policy shift: Higher energy prices are pushing more central banks toward a hawkish stance.

    Daily Chartbook

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[The S&P Is Near A High While Over 70% Of Its Stocks Sit At Least 10% Below Theirs]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-s-and-p-is-near-a-high-whilehttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-s-and-p-is-near-a-high-whileTue, 29 Sep 2026 22:30:55 GMT

  • Market breadth: The S&P is near a high while over 70% of its stocks sit at least 10% below theirs.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Treasury yields: The 10-year hit 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Gold squeeze: Spot gold fell over 3% as real yields surged.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Q4 setup: After three green quarters for the S&P, the fourth was positive in 19 of 20 cases.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Breadth breakdown: The S&P A/D line broke its 200-day while the index was still within 2% of highs.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Global yields: Average government bond yields jumped above 4% for the first time since 2007.

    Global Markets Observer

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[10-year Treasuries Topped 5.2% For The First Time Since 2007]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/10-year-treasuries-topped-52-forhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/10-year-treasuries-topped-52-forMon, 28 Sep 2026 22:30:55 GMT

  • Bond selloff: 10-year Treasuries topped 5.2% for the first time since 2007.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Consumer sentiment: Michigan fell to 48.1, its second-lowest level ever.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Midterm setup: From late September midterm years, the next 10 months were always green for the S&P.

    Bluekurtic

    1. AI concentration: The AI Big 10 now account for 41% of the US stock market.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Fed speak: Officials keep stressing they are not in the forward-guidance business.

    Global_Macro

    1. Productivity: Gains since 2019 look more like capital deepening than an AI shock.

    Deer Point Macro

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Investor Psychology Keeps Repeating The Same Cycle]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/investor-psychology-keeps-repeatinghttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/investor-psychology-keeps-repeatingSun, 27 Sep 2026 22:31:26 GMT

  • Human nature: Investor psychology keeps repeating the same cycle.

    • Macro Charts

    1. Election cycle: Q4 midterms and Q1 pre-election are historically strong for the S&P.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Memory stocks: The group trades at a 2-year forward P/E of about 4x.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. Oil inventories: The world just saw a fuel draw with no parallel in the record.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. Defensive stocks: Nobody is hiding in staples or utilities right now.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. Credit echo: Today's setup is starting to rhyme with 2007.

    Global_Macro

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Oracle CDS Hits A Record ~230 Bps, Over 4x The IG Index]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/oracle-cds-hits-a-record-230-bpshttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/oracle-cds-hits-a-record-230-bpsSat, 26 Sep 2026 22:30:25 GMT

  • Oracle CDS: The 5-year spread hit a record ~230 bps, over 4x the IG index.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Market breadth: More NYSE stocks hit 52-week lows than highs near S&P peaks.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Treasury selloff: The 30-year yield hit 5.53%, its highest level since 2004.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Macro narrative: Macro is seizing the story from equities again.

    Macro Charts

    1. Money supply: US M2 hit $23.3 trillion, up 5.7% YoY, the fastest in 4 years.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Mag 7 split: Mag 7 stocks are the least correlated in over 12 years.

    Bluekurtic

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[The US 10-year Treasury Yield Hit 5.10%, Its Highest Level Since 2007]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-us-10-year-treasury-yield-hithttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/the-us-10-year-treasury-yield-hitWed, 23 Sep 2026 22:32:10 GMT

  • 10-year yield: The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10%, its highest level since 2007.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Market breadth: Just 15% of S&P 500 industry groups trade above their 10-week averages.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Mortgage rates: The 30-year fixed rate jumped to 7.12%, the highest since May 2024.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Oil shipping: Gulf-to-Asia VLCC day rates surged to a record $1.1 million.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Sector split: The S&P sits near highs while Financials are 10% below their 30-day peak.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Flash PMI: US composite PMI hit 58.4 as growth collides with capacity strain.

    One Chance Freedom

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Technology Stocks Now Make Up 51% Of The S&P 500, The Largest Share On Record]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/technology-stocks-now-make-up-51https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/technology-stocks-now-make-up-51Tue, 22 Sep 2026 22:31:05 GMT

  • Tech majority: Technology stocks now make up 51% of the S&P 500, the largest share on record.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. China gold: Imports hit a record $158.8 billion in the first eight months of 2026.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Oil shipping: US-to-Asia freight costs jumped to about 25% of WTI, the highest on record.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Semis discount: Semiconductors trade at a 13% discount to the S&P 500, the cheapest in years.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. Energy top: Oil fell $10 in a week and XLE is carving a classic topping pattern.

    Macro Charts

    1. Tightening cycle: Markets are pricing one of the shallowest rate-hike cycles in history.

    Augur Infinity

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Technology Is About 38% Of The S&P 500, Near A Record Share]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/technology-is-about-38-of-the-s-andhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/technology-is-about-38-of-the-s-andTue, 22 Sep 2026 03:15:51 GMT

  • Tech concentration: Technology is about 38% of the S&P 500, near a record share.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Nasdaq signal: A bullish MACD crossover near highs has been followed by gains 100% of the time since 2023.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Big Tech cash: Capex is set to top $1 trillion in 2027 while free cash flow turns deeply negative.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Financial conditions: Global tightness just posted its largest restriction in two years.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Hidden AI debt: Hyperscalers and chipmakers now carry more than $3.1 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Data center SPVs: Hyperscalers are borrowing billions through SPVs that keep the debt off the balance sheet.

    Illiquid Insight

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Households Bought A Record ¥5.14 Trillion Of Government Bonds Between April And September]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/households-bought-a-record-514-trillionhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/households-bought-a-record-514-trillionSun, 20 Sep 2026 22:30:51 GMT

  • Japan JGBs: Households bought a record ¥5.14 trillion of government bonds between April and September.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. 10-year yield: The US 10-year has settled above 5% for the first time since 2007.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. China reserves: Treasury holdings are down about $500 billion since 2020 as gold reserves rose roughly 20%.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Equal weight: RSP has now fallen for five straight weeks, only the sixth such streak on record.

    Bluekurtic

    1. AI revenue web: A large share of AI-linked company revenue now depends on spending from a small group of players.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Broad inflation: More than half of CPI components are still running above a 3% annualized pace.

    Deer Point Macro

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[S&P Recovered Above Its 20-Week Average After A Brief Break]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/s-and-p-recovered-above-its-20-weekhttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/s-and-p-recovered-above-its-20-weekSat, 19 Sep 2026 22:30:25 GMT

  • SPX rebound: The S&P recovered above its 20-week average after a brief break, a setup that has led higher within 3 weeks every time since 2010.

    • Bluekurtic

    1. Yen positioning: Speculators just flipped yen exposure at the fastest pace on record.

    MacroCharts

    1. Yield curve: Markets price a flat curve a year out, with all yields at or above 5%.

    Global_Macro

    1. Rate hike week: Stocks finished lower even after a Friday bounce as the Fed, BoJ, and BoE all raised rates.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. Margin debt: Margin-debt growth cooled to about +37% YoY after peaking above +50%.

    Daily Chartbook

    1. BoJ rates: The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995.

    Augur Infinity

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[10-Year Real Yield Hit About 2.7%, Highest Since 2008]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/10-year-real-yield-hit-about-27-highesthttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/10-year-real-yield-hit-about-27-highestFri, 18 Sep 2026 22:30:49 GMT

  • Real yields: The 10-year real yield hit about 2.7%, the highest since 2008.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Foreign Treasuries: Official foreign holdings fell to about 13%, the lowest this century.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. September stocks: When the S&P is down this late in the month, history almost always stays red.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Global bond yields: Inflation fears are driving Bloomberg Global Treasury yields higher.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. France yields: The French 10-year is near 4.56%, about a full point over Germany.

    One Chance Freedom

    1. Oil and yields: The link between oil and the 10-year hit about 0.65, a multi-decade high.

    Global Markets Observer

    Read more

    ]]>    <![CDATA[Global Treasury Yields Hit About 3.9%, The Highest Since 2007]]>https://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/global-treasury-yields-hit-abouthttps://www.financechartsdaily.com/p/global-treasury-yields-hit-aboutThu, 17 Sep 2026 23:00:25 GMT

  • Bond yields: Global Treasury yields hit about 3.9%, the highest since 2007.

    • Global Markets Observer

    1. Tech credit: Hyperscaler 5-year CDS spreads jumped above 100 bps, a record high.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. 5% yields: The 10-year Treasury closed above 5% for the first time since 2007.

    Bluekurtic

    1. China Treasuries: Holdings fell another $15 billion to $618 billion, the lowest since 2008.

    Global Markets Observer

    1. AAII bulls: Bullish sentiment dropped to 28.8% even with the S&P near highs.

    Bluekurtic

    1. Pool Corp: Shares are in their deepest drawdown since the GFC, down about 70%.

    Fiscal.ai

    Read more

    ]]>