1. The US Economic Surprise Index is up to 0.338, the highest since October 2023: The index measures economic data expectations to reality, rising above 0 when data beats estimates and falling below 0 when data misses.

Lisa Abramowicz

2. The US services sector is signaling stagflation: The economy is caught between rising prices and a weakening labor market.

The Kobeissi Letter

3. For the first time ever, heat pumps outsold gas boilers in Germany in 2025: 48% of all new heating systems installed last year were heat pumps. Gas fell to just 39%. A decade ago, heat pumps had a 7% market share. The transformation has been remarkable.

Jan Rosenow

4. Oil price forecast post-ceasefire: Goldman’s case forecasts.

Neil Sethi

5. UMich: Consumer Sentiment Falls to Lowest Level on Record.

Hedgeye

Read more

1. US & world: The PEG ratio between the US and the rest of the world has re-set. -GS

Daily Chartbook

2. The stock portfolios of America's richest are under performing:

   

   The Kobeissi Letter

3. U.S. inflation headache: beef. While everyone is rightly focused on gasoline and oil amid US-Iran war, the meat market isn’t giving a respite. Live cattle wholesale prices in Chicago have reached a new all-time high, surpassing last October’s peak.

Javier Blas

4. Tanker Flows Through Strait Of Hormuz By Vessel Type

Daniel Lacalle

5. AI agents are skyrocketing in popularity: Perplexity’s revenue has reportedly surged +50% in one month after shifting into AI agents. As a result, Perplexity’s revenue has doubled in one quarter to more than $450 million in ARR. This follows Anthropic’s push into the space which said its ARR hit $19 billion at the end of February.

FT

Read more

1. Oil: Oil moves after the U.S. Iran 14-day ceasefire announcement. Excluding Covid, we’re looking at the biggest one day plunge in oil since the first Gulf War in 1991.

Joe Weisenthal

2. Potential mood shift: The global economy was in the process of re-acceleration up until February. This means we could quite quickly see the mood go from doom to boom if the U.S. and Iran reach a deal.

Topdown Charts

3. Owners of the world’s AI compute: Leading AI chips are distributed among hyperscalers and other major players, broken down by chip type over time.

Epoch AI

4. Missile hit rates: Iranian “missile hit rates against Israel have risen from 3% during the first two weeks of the war to 27%.” JPM.

Carl Quintanilla

5. Private credit in trouble: Blue Owl Capital, the poster child of the private credit boom, just closed at a record low. The stock fell -1.4% to $8.45 on Monday, slipping below its previous low from late 2022, and is now down -68% from its all-time high.

Global Markets Investor

Read more

1. HF positioning: Hedge Funds are now bullish on Wheat for the first time since 2022

Barchart

2. Gold now trades more than most major financial assets in the world: Average trading volume in gold averaged ~$361 billion per day in 2025, nearly triple the ~$134 billion per day seen in 2021.

The Kobeissi Letter

3. Software job openings soar: A bit of a narrative violation, but software engineering job openings are ripping higher. Maybe AI will create more jobs after all.

Eliant Capital

4. Effects of ChatGPT on employment: Since the Launch of ChatGPT, Industries and Occupations With High AI Substitution Scores Have Experienced Larger Declines in Employment and Increases in Unemployment on Average

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT

5. U.S. weekly oil exports at ATH: U.S. weekly petroleum product exports surged to a record 7.9 mb/d for the week ending March 27, according to EIA.

Mason Hamilton

Read more

1. We’re unable to build enough data centers: About half of the US data centers planned to open in 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled, according to analysts at Sightline Climate. Of the 12 gigawatts of data center capacity announced for this year, only a third is actually under construction. Transformers, switchgear, and batteries make up less than 10% of data center construction costs but are impossible to build without.

Hedgie Market

2. Time for crossing the Strait of Hormuz: The last tankers to cross the open Strait of Hormuz have now reached their destination

   

   zerohedge

3. The software sector is facing a massive debt wall: ~$40 billion in software and services debt matures in 2028, the largest single-year concentration.
   

The Kobeissi Letter

4. Financial stress among US consumers is intensifying: The delinquency rate on subprime loans is up to 10% of total outstanding debt, the highest in 11 years.

The Kobeissi Letter

5. Remarkable disconnect: EPS projections soaring (mostly on Mag7 hopes) while S&P is dumping (multiples collapsing).

zerohedge

Read more