Tech concentration: Technology is about 38% of the S&P 500, near a record share.
Nasdaq signal: A bullish MACD crossover near highs has been followed by gains 100% of the time since 2023.
Big Tech cash: Capex is set to top $1 trillion in 2027 while free cash flow turns deeply negative.
Financial conditions: Global tightness just posted its largest restriction in two years.
Hidden AI debt: Hyperscalers and chipmakers now carry more than $3.1 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments.
Data center SPVs: Hyperscalers are borrowing billions through SPVs that keep the debt off the balance sheet.
